US election 2020: Trump closes gap on Biden – latest polls

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Joe Biden is still polling ahead of the current president, although the gap has narrowed over the summer. The year of 2020 has been a disastrous year for US and for Donald Trump, with coronavirus sweeping the nation and ongoing civil unrest as a reaction to the plague of police brutality.

Mr Biden has been ahead of Mr Trump in national polls for most of the year.

He has hovered around 50 percent in recent weeks and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

But the gap is narrowing on the Democratic nominee, Having led by 28 percentage points this time last month, Mr Biden traded at 50 percent today according to Smarkets, with Trump just behind on 49 percent.

Smarkets still project the opposition to win with 302 Electoral College seats to the incumbent’s 236, however that has swung ten votes in Trump’s favour over the past week.

Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, told “Currently, Mr Biden is holding a national seven point advantage over Mr Trump, according to a USA Today poll of registered voters.”

Following the 2016 election, Americans are much less trustworthy of the polls, which showed that Hillary Clinton was going to win for the Democrats, even though there were only a few percentage points separating the two candidates.

The latest polling results come after the conclusion of Republicans’ nominating convention last week, when Trump excoriated Biden as beholden to the “radical left” wing of the Democratic Party and warned that the “American way of life” would be destroyed were he not reelected.

Biden’s campaign aides have insisted in recent days that they expected a tightening of the race as the general election campaign enters its final stretch, pointing to the political polarisation of the country’s electorate.

At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Mr Biden, but there’s a long way to go and things can change very quickly.

In Wisconsin, where Mr Trump won by a razor thin margin in 2016, Mr Biden currently holds a five point lead.

In Florida, where coronavirus is currently raving, Mr Biden also leads Mr Trump by about five percentage points.

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Mr Biden currently has a narrow lead in Arizona, a state only one Democratic presidential candidate has won in the past 70 years.

An even narrower lead is being held in North Carolina by the Democratic nominee, which has voted Republican in nine out of the last 10 elections.

In typically red Texas, the difference in poll numbers between the two men is less than five percentage points.

Betting odds are also changing in line with the polling and market predictions.

Dave Prentice from The Pools said: “Donald Trump has eaten into Joe Biden’s early lead in the US Presidential race and the POTUS has now nosed ahead of his rival for the first time.

“The polls initially had Biden consistently ahead of Trump, but the most recent odds from have seen the President mount a stirring comeback.

“Trump is now 19/20 favourite to win the presidential race, with Biden drifting to 4/5.”

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